Prediction Markets Have No Place in Clinical Trials
Kalshi just launched biotech prediction markets as a pilot program, letting the public bet on outcomes like FDA approvals and clinical trial results. We think that's a serious mistake.
Prediction markets are often defended as a way to aggregate dispersed information — the idea that a large enough crowd, with money on the line, converges on the truth faster than any single expert. That logic holds up reasonably well for elections and sporting events. Clinical trials are neither.
The people with the most valuable information about a trial — researchers, sponsors, industry insiders — may also have access to material, non-public information. Allowing money to trade on that information doesn't aggregate anything; it creates serious openings for market manipulation, conflicts of interest, and the misuse of confidential trial data.
The displayed odds can shape the outcome they're predicting
The displayed odds can also begin to shape the outcome they are supposedly predicting. A large bet against a trial could influence investors, potential partners, physicians, and public perception before the data are released — regardless of the underlying science.
Patients are not passive subjects in this market
Imagine enrolling in a clinical trial, taking an experimental therapy, and then watching strangers place increasingly large bets that your trial will fail. That could erode trust, increase anxiety, and make patients more likely to withdraw — directly affecting retention, data quality, and potentially the trial's outcome. Trust in clinical research by patients is already a big barrier for the industry.
Clinical trials depend on confidentiality, scientific integrity, and the trust of patients taking on real personal risk. When betting markets meet clinical trials, it isn't just an abstract outcome being priced — it's a person's hope for a therapy, converted into a line on a leaderboard. Patients enroll in trials seeking access to new treatment, not to become the subject of financial speculation.
We at Rightview stand firmly against this.